Thursday, December 31, 2009

peak oil update

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2009-12-30/oil-rises-a-seventh-day-set-for-biggest-annual-gain-in-decade.html


Oil is on the rise again. Note how volatility in the market is expected for the coming year. Demand is expected to increase due to rising consumption associated with the expected economic recovery. This means that our economic demand is dependent on economic stability. Due to instability in world markets, this means that there are going to be large fluctuations in the demand, the supply and the cost of oil. We have seen (are seeing) this happen before (right now). We will continue to see volatility in the oil market until the entire system crashes. This is a result of the peak oil syndrome. We will never run out of oil. This is because our socio-economic system will crash long before all the oil is gone. We use nearly 20 million barrels of oil a day. What would our society look like if we had to reduce to 15 million barrels a day? What about 5 million (just about as much as we produced in 2009)? The collapse of our society, as we know it, is inevitable. What are you doing about it? As always, the solutions lie within our selves. It is us that will need to create the solutions to our current and future crises.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Peak Oil: the doomsday diatribe (part 1 of 3)

“It’s the end of the world as we know it
and I feel fine.”
REM

Peak Oil, muthaf’ers, is the concept that we (as the entire world), have used up half of the world’s oil supplies. Why does this matter? Because the first half of the world’s supply was the CHEAP and EASY half, while the second half will be the HARD and EXPENSIVE half. Now think of how much our society depends on the presence of cheap petroleum. From our plastics to our clothing to our electronics to $.99 drive-thru shitburgers to the fact that everything in our supply chain of services and products are somehow reliant on the use of petroleum for TRANSPORTATION. Add to this that the only way the world’s breadbaskets can produce enough calories for the world to support 6.7 billion people is through the use of highly effective petroleum based fertilizer and petroleum based machinery, and you begin to understand how dependent the world is on petroleum for our basic survival needs. Everything is going to get tighter, more expensive, more difficult to get and the Fed printing more and more paper money will not save us.

A few facts to consider:

• the US reached peak oil in 1970, producing over 9 million barrels per day
• we now produce around 5 mbpd
• we consume around 20 mbpd
• We need to import the other 15 mpbd
• transportation accounts for 71% of our crude oil consumption
• Three of our top 5 importers have reached peak oil (Venezuala 1970, Mexico 2004, Nigeria 2005)
• Peak Oil for the world is inevitable; it is only the timing that is in question.

As all nations try to emulate the US in our advanced modern capitalistic society, they also proportionally emulate our energy needs (think China and India). Now here is a question to ponder. What is going to happen when the consumption rates of our top importers outgrows their excess production capabilities? (the answer: they will stop importing to the US). As Mexico’s oil production slides down the back side of Hubbert’s bell curve, and its consumption of oil remains constant (or increases), their ability to export to the US will disappear. We are living at the end of the age of Cheap Oil. We are at the beginning of a profound cultural change and whether we like it or not, we are beginning the transition into a post-oil world. Rob Hopkins talks about three possibilities in his book The Transition Handbook: 1. Long-Term Transition where a 50% reduction in oil consumption over the next 20 years allows us to gradually grow our post-oil culture, 2. Oil Shock where severe supply disruptions and price hikes produce “periodic sustained emergencies”, and 3. Disintegration where the impacts of oil deprivation become so severe that the “fabric of society begins to unravel, leading to socially catastrophic competition for scarce resources, including food shelter and energy”. Which scenario would you like to see? Which scenario do your lifestyle habits support?

Get educated. Our window of figuring this out is shrinking quicker than we think. The day most people will realize what is happening is the day the shovel hits the face. Wikipedia has a good overview of Peak Oil, while The Oil Drum provides easily understood technical and analytical discussions on the topic. Remember, it is our ability to create local solutions to local issues that are going to help us transition through our upcoming crises. Next diatribe: Climate Change.

Peace,
thevermontpatriot

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Positive Transition

Thank you all for taking the time to read this blog. I especially thank those who have taken the time to provide an on-going commentary to my original posts. They are thought provoking and informative.

My mother read the first posts and she said "You need to be more positive". I intend, in this blog, to focus on the ever-deepening crisis that is beginning to affect the United States as well as the world as a whole. At times, it will be difficult to focus on the positives while detailing the elements of the collapse of our known civilization. We are experiencing change on a scale rarely seen in human and global history. I do believe there are inherent positives in this process. We will, by necessity, become kinder to our planet, our global empire based on human exploitation will fail due to its overreach and we will learn that it is only our local communities that can provide the emotional, spiritual and physical needs of our survival.

Here will be the constant message: a local community based democracy, confederated with other local community based democracies is the only way to provide solutions that can honestly and effectively meet our community needs. Healthcare is a local issue, food is a local issue, energy is a local issue, everything is a local issue: it is our parents, it is our children, it is our neighbors, it is our selves that we will need to depend upon to survive the impending transition.

Another constant message: it is through the perfect storm of peak oil (see Chris Martenson's crash course), massive environmental degradation (i.e. climate change, water supplies, food supplies) and over-population that our society will be irrevocably changed. When the shit goes down (and it will go down), it is only ourselves who can provide any relevant solution. Ultimately, that is the hope that I provide as an answer to my mother: through local collaboration, we can provide a more egalitarian, a more just and a better quality of life. I implore each and every one of you to commit yourselves to this cause. It truly is our only hope.

Here is an excerpt from the Vermont Commons, a bi-monthly newspaper dedicated to creating strong, local community governance through the act of secession. This excerpt, by Adrian Kuzminski, succinctly explains the historical context that can help guide us to a better form of governance:
Few Americans are aware that Vermont, the fourteenth state admitted to the Union in 1791, was not a colony like the others; it was a pre-existing independent republic spontaneously created by its residents who rejected the authority of neighboring colonies, particularly New York which had the strongest claim to its territory.
In its 14 years of formal independence, beginning in 1777, it very nearly fulfilled the textbook image of a society created voluntarily by free persons living in the state of nature – a favorite motif of seventeenth- and eighteenth-century social contract political philosophers. Texas, California, and Hawaii also enjoyed periods as independent republics, but Vermont's example reflects a greater equality of persons and resources. In the case of Vermont, in the face of a trend toward oligarchy in America evident even in the eighteenth century – an egalitarian, democratic community for a time found almost complete realization.

Here is a link to the full article: Vermont - The First Populist Republic.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Homer's Healthcare

America's health care system is second only to Japan ... Canada, Sweden, Great Britain ... well, all of Europe. But you can thank your lucky stars we don't live in Paraguay! Homer Simpson


Healthcare is a right. It is not a privilege. If we are so unlucky as to be mauled in a car accident, one hopes they are not to be asked who they are before they receive any sort of medical attention. Can you imagine an ambulance driving away without you because you were not the correct member of society? As a society, we believe that we must help each and every one of us. We know this is true because we would expect the help if we were the one mauled in that car accident. If this premise is accepted, (and frankly it is only a recently perceived right compared to the ancient rights of speech, public assembly, habeus corpus, etc…), then one must demand that our self-elected gov’t guarantees that right. For is that not what our gov’t must do? to protect our rights? is not that what our Founding Fathers fought for? that the great ideals of freedom, liberty and democracy would guarantee these rights?

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.”

Thomas Jefferson The Declaration of Independence 1776

The idea that someone is making enormous amounts of fat money off of my sick and dying family and neighbors is intolerable. It is immoral. And it really angers me. While people scream about keeping gov’t out of our healthcare, gov’t programs are quietly working for us everyday: Medicare, Medicaid, the VA system and here in Vermont we have Dr. Dynosaur which keeps 98% of children insured. Gov’t programs work. Private industry has failed to guarantee health care for every citizen. They have proven to be notoriously unreliable, intrusive and self-interested. Our healthcare model is horrible. According to the CIA World Factbook, we rank 47th in infant mortality. Why does Iceland have a three times better rate than we do? Almost any reform is good reform.

The persistent difficulty is how do we afford it? This is only going to become more difficult as the baby boomer generation continues to age. Once we realize that public health care is a basic human right (why do we guarantee education but not health care?) we then will figure it out. Our society is not going to abandon healthcare because we are going to add another trillion over ten years to our national debt. It will not make our national gov’t go bankrupt (see chrismartenson.com’s crash course to see why we are going to go bankrupt!). There are many better models around the world from Switzerland to Singapore where the average citizen is getting better health care than here in the USA.

I believe that Washington DC will fail to bring meaningful reform to our healthcare system. They will not be able to recognize that healthcare is a basic human right. The rich will continue to get richer and the poor will be saddled with overworked primary care staff or emergency room-only visits (which, by the way, was George W. Bush’s version of universal healthcare). Insurers will continue to drop clients and they will continue to heavily influence the decisions made in the doctors office. Truly it is time we stop looking to Washington DC for the answers but begin to look to ourselves for the solution. As climate change and global restructuring takes place, it is only ourselves that will be able to create the answers. This is why I believe we must separate from the cancer that is the home to our global empire, Washington DC. This is why I believe we must secede and once again become independent.

I will close with the very next sentence after the above quote from the Declaration of Independence:

"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness".

thevermontpatriot

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Welcome/Introduction:

Thank you for taking the time to visit and participate in this blog. This is an experiment for me and I hope you can excuse any gross errors, wild rants and other various vulgarities. Especially beware any blog posted after 2 AM. Consider yourself forewarned.
In this blog I hope to provide a steady commentary on our society as it transitions from the 20th century version of industrialization and globalization into the 21st century unknown. I hope to use historical context to help understand current situations which will then help us understand possible future outcomes. What is causing our global crisis and why? What are the actions and motivations that are being expressed on the global stage? What can you and I do that will make a difference? How can we prepare ourselves for the unknown future?
My basic premise is that when (not if, but when) global systems fail due to the perfect storm of peak oil, overpopulation and environmental degradation, it is you and me that will be responsible for the continuing survival of our progeny and our communities. Always, we must ask: what skills do I have that will help me survive when our global transportation system breaks down and our supermarket shelves become empty? What will you do when the sea levels rise a couple of feet and our coastal cities will have to evacuate? What will happen when the world’s 5th largest economy (California) experiences “the big one” and fails to function? Do you think our gov’t in Washington DC can effectively handle that crisis? Do you think the mass starvation of billions of people worldwide will affect your life?
We are on the edge of a re-awakening as our current global social system begins to disintegrate; we see the evidence everyday in the news and at the gas station. I believe that a localized communitarian based democracy is the only form of gov’t that will lead us through the looming crisis. Sustainability in every action is the key to our survival. It is my hope, through this blog, to educate, influence and inspire both common thought and common action towards a more egalitarian, communal and peaceful society.

Congratulations, by completing this post, you have passed the ADHD test. Make sure you take the poll and check out the links for lots more information.

Peace,
the vermont patriot

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Fear, Fascism and Healthcare

Into the depths of our future unknown, we turn to our inner primal fears. We lash and claw and bite at the very mechanism of our solutions. We live in an unsustainable culture: peak oil, over-population and massive worldwide environmental degradation guarantee the collapse of our society as we know it. There is no avoiding it, there is only delay.

Our current national health care debate is turning into a spectacle of ignorance, fear and brimming violence as the extreme right grows into the bullying fascism perfected by Hitler. One of the keys to understand contemporary American fascism (see Naomi Wolf’s “The End of America” for a good outline) is the insipid relationship between corporations and the American government. Hitler groveled to the German steel industry for their support and their money and the Krupps, etc. quite happily supported his visionary militarism. More guns mean more sales mean more money for the corporate execs. This intertwining of private interests and public policy is a constant throughout American history ever since Shay’s Rebellion taught the framers of the US constitution that government had an important role in protecting corporate interests.

So when we see Democratic Senator Max Baucus of Montana holding up the health care bill, one must consider the fact that he is the leading recipient of campaign money from the ”health care” industry. Could it be that the $3 million dollars that he has received will influence how he behaves in the backrooms of the Senate? Could it be that his sponsors would use their influence to change his behavior? Does Max Baucus act in the interests of his constituents as well as the rest of America or is he more interested in currying the favors of his corporate donors?

It is true that gov’t programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and the VA run much lower administration costs than do private industry. For one, they cannot payout the massive compensation that private industry executives receive. Private industry is designed to do only one thing: make money. Giving healthcare to people is antithetical to their bottom line. They give out only what they have to and they take whatever they can. So while healthcare executives fly around the world in their corporate jets dining on gold encrusted silverware, people are dying from lack of adequate healthcare (see DemocracyNow’s interview with Wendell Potter [http://www.democracynow.org/2009/7/16/former_insurance_exec_wendell_porter]). It is also true that private insurers have a huge influence on what decisions doctors make for their patients, in fact, much more than any gov’t program. We are seeing Republicans and their far right conservative base using misinformation to reach into the depths of our collective primal fears to preserve the status quo of private industry controlling our health care solutions. Which everyone agrees is inefficient and failing. People are screaming to keep the gov’t out of the doctor’s office, but, by God, don’t touch their Medicare. Go figure.

What is their solution? You can only trust a corporate executive to do what corporate executives do: whatever it takes to preserve their wealth and their privileged way of life. The results of their actions among us commoners are not of their concern.

The question for the independent minded is: Do you believe that the powers in Washington DC can craft a moral and sustainable solution that will provide a benefit to the collective group of citizens we call Americans? A greater question then arises: Do you believe that the powers of Washington DC will be able to respond in a moral and sustainable manner while the world as we know it crumbles due to peak oil, over-population and environmental degradation? The answers are obvious. Look at New Orleans, look at the multi-trillion dollar bailout of the thieves who created the economic crisis, look at the oil/automobile industry, look at Honduras, look anywhere. The answers to our solution do not lie with the money lust greed of Washington DC and the global empire it represents. The solution lies with us, it lies with our neighbors and it lies in the skills of basic survival we must learn. FreeVermont. FreeYourself. Now.

Friday, May 22, 2009

fucked!

I.

Watching the last vestiges of democracy
slipping
Into structure and order,
I am nervous;
the sham is almost complete,

II.

Lost into the void of apathy,
nothing matters but my footstep
keeping in time to the lockstep clock 8 am be at work leave by 4
go home, eat, sleep, do it all again.


Ahhhh, great Death dreams in America,
entrapment
enslavement
entertainment
Keep me happy with my 3 megapixel iphone
Keep me happy with my soft porn football cheerleaders
Keep me happy with masturbation gas pedal 0-60 in 5 seconds

Let us forget those 50’s acid dreams, martini-drinking CIA motherfuckers dosing every shitball prostitute whore heroin crack dealing assassinating anybody who dared fight the global corporate lustful greed money fuckers:

Fuck El Salvador
Fuck Guatemala
Fuck Panama
Fuck the Philippines
Fuck Venezuela
Fuck Iraq
Fuck Iran
Fuck Vietnam
Fuck Pakistan
Fuck the Congo
Fuck Malcolm X
and MLK jr.
Fuck the Kennedy’s
death bleeding hope in the asphalt streets
Fuck the Black Panthers
and the Kent State working class educated shot in the streets of America
Fuck the whole fucking British Empire whose centuries of immoral enslavement of impoverished colored people has been their evil perceived birthright that we have taken over since WW2. God fuck the corporate raping of the every corner of the planet all in the name of glory and greed/lust money and their motherfucking yacht sailing 2nd home in aspen, 3rd home in the caymans 4th home in the fucking Hamptons and their docking fees at the motherfucking Greenwich, CT sailing club.

Fuck you,
May you fucking burn in hell.


III.

Careful iterations of dream balling Vietnam sunsets of death shit smell gonorrhea love. How can the power of the privileged few control the destinies of so many billions? How could death dealing life reaming fire breathing money lusting greed fuck me? Governmental agencies spying, dosing, lying, torturing, detaining, whiskey-drinking passion till death do us part fuck the common man, fuck the public common, fuck the cooperative working together of humans dedicated to our peaceful coexistence. That is dangerous; you me working together. That is dangerous. The black man, the yellow man the red man, man after man after man. Fuck your black. Fuck your yellow. Fuck your red. And definitely fuck your white (knight) bullshit lust fantasy of superiority grasping for righteousness let your house burn until cleansed of your un-pure spirit.

IV.

We are already defeated before we start, yet I fuck your preconceptions and rebel within my mind while my body daydreams walking zombie through the day paycheck 9-5 bullshit that my eyes deny but my legs move forward and my breathe heaves with unawareness heart beat relentless without conviction. Fuck me, where did it all go wrong lust greed masturbation fuck yourself and fuck you. Lust. Greed. Cum-Fuck yourself.
Fuck! we can’t kill them all...
the insurance will cover.

V.

Life breaths in flowing waves green wind in rainbow sky sunset yellow beams of light thru forest of beech, maple, birch, pine and hemlock, spruce and yes, oak.