and I feel fine.”
REM
Peak Oil, muthaf’ers, is the concept that we (as the entire world), have used up half of the world’s oil supplies. Why does this matter? Because the first half of the world’s supply was the CHEAP and EASY half, while the second half will be the HARD and EXPENSIVE half. Now think of how much our society depends on the presence of cheap petroleum. From our plastics to our clothing to our electronics to $.99 drive-thru shitburgers to the fact that everything in our supply chain of services and products are somehow reliant on the use of petroleum for TRANSPORTATION. Add to this that the only way the world’s breadbaskets can produce enough calories for the world to support 6.7 billion people is through the use of highly effective petroleum based fertilizer and petroleum based machinery, and you begin to understand how dependent the world is on petroleum for our basic survival needs. Everything is going to get tighter, more expensive, more difficult to get and the Fed printing more and more paper money will not save us.
A few facts to consider:
• the US reached peak oil in 1970, producing over 9 million barrels per day
• we now produce around 5 mbpd
• we consume around 20 mbpd
• We need to import the other 15 mpbd
• transportation accounts for 71% of our crude oil consumption
• Three of our top 5 importers have reached peak oil (Venezuala 1970, Mexico 2004, Nigeria 2005)
• Peak Oil for the world is inevitable; it is only the timing that is in question.
As all nations try to emulate the US in our advanced modern capitalistic society, they also proportionally emulate our energy needs (think China and India). Now here is a question to ponder. What is going to happen when the consumption rates of our top importers outgrows their excess production capabilities? (the answer: they will stop importing to the US). As Mexico’s oil production slides down the back side of Hubbert’s bell curve, and its consumption of oil remains constant (or increases), their ability to export to the US will disappear.
We are living at the end of the age of Cheap Oil. We are at the beginning of a profound cultural change and whether we like it or not, we are beginning the transition into a post-oil world. Rob Hopkins talks about three possibilities in his book The Transition Handbook: 1. Long-Term Transition where a 50% reduction in oil consumption over the next 20 years allows us to gradually grow our post-oil culture, 2. Oil Shock where severe supply disruptions and price hikes produce “periodic sustained emergencies”, and 3. Disintegration where the impacts of oil deprivation become so severe that the “fabric of society begins to unravel, leading to socially catastrophic competition for scarce resources, including food shelter and energy”. Which scenario would you like to see? Which scenario do your lifestyle habits support?Get educated. Our window of figuring this out is shrinking quicker than we think. The day most people will realize what is happening is the day the shovel hits the face. Wikipedia has a good overview of Peak Oil, while The Oil Drum provides easily understood technical and analytical discussions on the topic. Remember, it is our ability to create local solutions to local issues that are going to help us transition through our upcoming crises. Next diatribe: Climate Change.
Peace,
thevermontpatriot
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